The Economy in a World of New Priorities

I f there is anything certain in the modern economy, it ’ s change. While we enjoy using assorted opportunities to repeat and scare one another about the times of extraordinary variability and uncertainty we all face, the truth is somewhat different: both have become typical features of the economic landscape. It goes without saying that they are also the price we are paying for the exorbitant development and technological changes of recent decades, for the never-ending race we have decided to join in the name of progress and prosperity. The problem, however, lies in something else. Some changes can be imagined, anticipated, and thus prepared for, or at least swiftly “ tamed ” . Others meet the definition of the classic black swan, an event which - even if not necessarily beyond our imagination - we usually find unrealistic or absurd, its scale and consequences eluding any form of long-term appraisal, in which case, everything basically occurs ex post rather than ex ante. Black swans have once again arrived on our doorsteps, first as a pandemic, now in the form of war. While the latter has been sweeping across Ukraine and may seem distant to some, this war is a threat to the entire western world, to our economy and - to add insult to injury - to our ideals and values. Regrettably, it may also prove a threat to our very existence.