Why Poland is Becoming Less Central European and More Baltic

Installed more than 20 kilometres from the coast, they are hardly an eyesore, unless you have a strong pair of binoculars or are named Donald Trump, or both. Beachgoers in Łeba seem more bothered by the unseasonably cold weather.

The turbines, part of a wind farm project called Baltic Power, are expected to go online next year and generate enough energy to power 1.5 million homes. They are also markers in a changing economic and geopolitical landscape. Poland has long been viewed as a central European country. But as its green transition begins to take hold, and the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine settles across the region, the country’s centre of gravity is starting to move north, towards the Baltic Sea.

Energy is leading the way. Poland’s south, home to most of its coal mines and heavy industry, has long been the country’s engine room. That is changing. Poland plans to phase out coal by 2049, so as to align with EU clean-energy targets. Increasing mining costs are also helping the economy go green. In June of this year, Poland’s renewables generated more power than coal for the first time. Poland is increasingly looking to the Baltic coast to meet its energy needs. The country has already boosted capacity at its only LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal, in Swinoujscie, to 8.3 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year, and plans to open a second one, capable of handing another 6.1 bcm, in Gdansk in 2028. A pipeline stretching from Norway through Denmark, launched in 2022, can provide up to 10 bcm more gas. The sea is also helping Poland go nuclear. The Baltic’s waters might be too cold for Club Med regulars. But they are perfect for reactor cores, which is why Poland’s first nuclear plant, set to open in the 2030s, will be based on the coast.