The Five Forces Defining Our Future

First, the pandemic brought unseen challenges, disrupted our exchanges and constrained our mobility, forcing families and employees into isolation – either by one’s choice or against one’s wishes. Even if global trade was not affected as much as it has been first feared, bottlenecks paralyzed several industries: from semiconductors and car manufacturers to antibiotics – sending prices of few but strategic components and services through the roof. Governments and global companies responded, and the search for self-reliance or, as we called it in Europe – strategic autonomy – has become the new paradigm, first out of necessity, then out of choice. Globalization has been tainted with regional flavor; “just-in-time” being increasingly complemented with “just-in-case”.

Then, the aggression of Russia in Ukraine or, as non-Europeans call it, “war in Europe” sent tectonic waves throughout the world. Exacerbated inflation; bringing food and energy resources scarcity not only in Europe but to its trade partners – basically all the planet, starting with the Middle East and North Africa to South-East Asia. Liquified Natural Gas pulled away from Pakistan, Bangladesh, China and Brazil together with exceptionally mild winter, protected European citizens from energy shortages and blackouts. But it did not protect European industries from decreasing output and losing competitiveness. Offshoring industrial production in search of cheap energy is a looming specter, hunting European decision-makers.