The Long, Successful Road to Energy Independence

We are more than ready for the Russian raw materials embargo, and can walk away from them starting today”. Poles have been hearing such assurances repeatedly from the prime minister, other ministers, and heads of the largest companies. Having joined forces with allied Baltic States on a European Union level, Warsaw has also been among the most avid advocates of such sanctions, which are unquestionably the most painful for the Kremlin. This is why Mateusz Morawiecki’s government remained unruffled by Gazprom’s decision. In late April, the Russian company announced that in view of the refusal to accept Moscow’s newly tabled payment system, Poland (and Bulgaria) would be cut off from contracted gas supplies. The decision was made despite a fact that all experts unanimously agree on: “blue fuel” is the most difficult energy resource for Europe to replace.

Is this an example of how security and politics trump the economy in times of war? This may be answered in the affirmative, at least in part. Pursuant to an index designed and introduced by the European Commission, over the past 20 years Poland has increased its energy dependence by a magnitude of four, with “energy dependence” defined as the significance of the share of imports in covering energy demand. Even the most basic import-related data suggests that while Russia’s general importance as a supplier is on the decline for the entire country and individual companies, when it comes to two key areas - oil and gas - Poland imports most of its resources from the East.