Most Important in Decades

Admittedly, US opinion polls may not be the best proxy for public sentiment. They promised Hillary Clinton certain victory in her 2016 clash with Trump. On the other hand, the Democrats did surprisingly well in the 2022 midterm elections. It looks like the potential contest between Biden and Trump will not be decided until the last minute.

And with it, the fate of US support for Ukraine, which is defending itself against Russian aggression. Trump (like DeSantis) has already announced reduction in support (Vivek Ramaswamy, another Republican seeking the nomination, would even formally recognise Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory). Trump’s actual politics during his first term were not as pro-Russian as his public statements, but this was largely due to other officials in his administration, who blocked his craziest ideas. The question of who Trump would surround himself with in his new term remains open.

Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has recently signed the 2024 budget, which provides for the equivalent of EUR 100 billion in military spending, corroborating what analysts have been writing about for months. The Kremlin is counting on Trump’s election victory, and only then will it be willing to try to force concessions from the West, weakened by this victory, either by accepting a frozen war or tacitly recognising the existing front line as the de facto Russian-Ukrainian border. The Republicans are already attempting and even succeeding at blocking further aid packages to Ukraine through Congress. They argue that it is more important to fund domestic programmes, help Israel in its clash with Hamas, and stem the tide of migration from Latin America. Europe alone will be unable to shoulder the burden of supporting Ukraine; it has not even delivered on the promise to provide 1 million munition rounds. Were Trump to follow up on his earlier threats and withdraw from NATO, Europe and especially the countries on its eastern flank, including Poland, would find themselves facing an increasingly aggressive Kremlin alone. A worse-case scenario is hard to imagine.

Russian Influence

Nonetheless, a black swan event could possibly cause Russia to halt hostilities even before the US elections. Only then could another planned election, the presidential election in Ukraine, be held. Binding legislation prohibits a popular vote during martial law; besides, it would be impossible to hold one for organisational reasons. Had it not been for the invasion, Ukrainians would have gone to the polls on 31 March 2024 (and elected a parliament a few months earlier). Although President Volodymyr Zelensky’s aides had been considering how to circumvent the ban on elections during the war, and some less realistic Western politicians were urging Kyiv to prove its commitment to democratic principles by organising the election, common sense (and political calculation) eventually prevailed. On the other hand, when Zelensky’s term ends in May, the Kremlin will begin to argue that Ukraine has no legitimate president. And then Viktor Yanukovych, ousted in 2014 and pulled from time to time by the Russians from the political vacuum, may make a comeback as the “legitimate head of state”.

In these circumstances, the European Parliament election, scheduled for June 2024, seems the most important election in Europe, especially as no national elections are expected in the major European countries (although they may be held in the UK; London has until 28 January 2025 to hold a vote). Circulating between Brussels and Strasbourg, MEPs will decide in the next term on key issues related to the energy transition, post-pandemic recovery, and perhaps a change to the treaties, which Germany is proposing as a condition for future EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Ukraine. These countries would like the European Parliament to vote on enlargement during its term running until 2029, but this scenario seems excessively optimistic. Polls show that the alternative, partly pro-Russian right is set to increase its hold on the new European Parliament, although not enough to threaten the informal coalition of Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, and Liberals.

The absence of elections in Europe’s largest countries does not mean that the Old Continent will remain under the electoral radar. Elections in several countries may determine the future approach to the Russia-Ukraine war. In Slovakia, the camp of Prime Minister Robert Fico, sceptical of further assistance to Kyiv, will try to win the presidential seat in the spring after the parliamentary success of 2023. The former liberal head of state Zuzana Čaputová wants to withdraw from politics, citing fatigue and threats against her and her family. The new leadership is likely to put former prime minister and key coalition member Peter Pellegrini forward for the presidential post. While Pellegrini appears more moderate on foreign policy than Fico, a possible loss of presidential office by the Liberals will make it much easier for the prime minister to continue to govern. A similar battle between the pro-Russian and pro-Western camps will take place in Moldova, where President Maia Sandu, who is resisting the Kremlin’s appetites, will try to win re-election. In December, the first round of presidential elections will take place in Croatia, with the mildly pro-Russian President Zoran Milanović likely to run. The election of heads of state in Finland, Lithuania, and Romania will have less regional impact as their geopolitical course is roughly certain.

A new round of domestic chaos could be unleashed by the parliamentary election in Belgium. With a fractured political scene and a complicated electoral law, the government took 10 months to emerge after the previous vote in 2019, and only succeeded in the effort because politicians panicked about the rapid spread of the pandemic and accepted a minority cabinet.

Flexing Muscles

Chaos, albeit on a very different scale, also looms in Venezuela. The country is due to hold presidential elections mid-year, with some signs that they may put an end to the decade-long political crisis. Nicolás Maduro’s regime has persecuted the opposition for years, and for a time Venezuela even had two mutually hostile cabinets (the alternative government headed by Juan Guaidó even managed to garner some international recognition). Now the government is promising to allow the opposition to campaign on a level playing field, but few people believe this. If these promises are not fulfilled, the elections could be fraught with another wave of violence. The upcoming vote carries one more risk: the Caracas government has been threatening neighbouring Guyana with invasion. A small, victorious war is a classic tactic of dictators who are losing popularity.

Enter Vladimir Putin, whose popularity soared to unprecedented heights with the first attack on Ukraine in 2014. On 17 March, Russians are set to elect him for another term. This will be the first nationwide election since the invasion of Ukraine, which accelerated Russia’s transformation from an authoritarian state to a hard-line regime with elements of totalitarianism. The campaign is likely to stifle the remnants of opposition movements; heated discussions are already taking place in opposition circles about how to behave in anticipation of the March vote. The Kremlin is clearly aiming to turn Russia into another Belarus, where virtually all opposition politicians were imprisoned or forced into exile after the rigged 2020 presidential election. In February, the political cycle in Aleksandr Lukashenko’s country will come to a close when Belarusians take part in the theatre called “parliamentary elections”.

Next year will also be noteworthy for elections in a number of countries that are among the world’s most populous democracies. The people of India, South Korea, Pakistan, and South Africa will elect new parliaments, while Indonesians and Mexicans will vote for a president in addition to electing MPs. The scale of the challenge in such large countries is evident in India and Indonesia. In the former, voting will take a month and the number of eligible voters is likely to exceed 1 billion for the first time in world history. Indonesia will elect a president, MPs, and councillors at various levels in one fell swoop, voting on one day at 823,000 polling stations; a quarter of a million candidates ran in the previous elections. Against the backdrop of increasing pressure from China, the presidential and parliamentary campaign in Taiwan will be interesting (election day is 13 January). Emerging from a dramatic economic collapse, Sri Lanka will elect its head of state, while South Sudan plans to hold its first elections since independence in 2011. The parliamentary election season in 2024 will open with Bangladesh on 7 January. ©Ⓟ