Poland May Play a Key Role in the Technological Revolution

– most goods and services would be purchased by e-clients,

– e-employees would be a growing headcount community.

Greatly influencing economic development and the daily existence of most people on Earth today, that revolutionary change was born in garages and technological company laboratories. Carefully following news published by universities, and research and development centres owned by technological giants and startup leaders, top experts are attempting to forecast future events, identifying opportunities and threats.

Iot, Blockchain, and the Great Comeback of AI

“Following the development of assorted technologies from a bird’s-eye view, I see three potential contributing factors to a massive dynamic of the digital revolution: the Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain, and metaverse. While the latter has been dragging its feet because of a pile-up of crises and recession, it will make a swift comeback”, declares Piotr Ciepiela, partner at EY, global leader on the software architecture and state-of-the-art tech security market.

What about Artificial Intelligence? The expert admits that while it will have a key role to play in our new world, it can hardly be considered a “new technology”.

“This is a great comeback of something we have been basically considering… forever”, Piotr Ciepiela emphasises. He is further quick to point out that the earliest machine learning systems were built in the 1950s and 1960s, and swiftly followed by expert systems, among others the “psychologist”. Using key words, it was capable of advising patients on family relations. Deep Blue was the first system in history to win a game of chess with world champion Garri Kasparov in February 1996. While man emerged victorious in the match owing to Kasparov having won three successive games and a further two ending with a draw, an improved algorithm (“Deeper Blue”) won against the grandmaster a mere thirteen months later, in May 1997 (3.5:2.5).

“Interestingly enough, Deep Blue could not play chess. It was simply capable of analysing a considerably greater number of move options than a human being. Yet true technological change in the field came slightly later: by 2015, AlphaGo – a DeepMind-generated system – could play chess and the ancient Chinese game of go, beating world champions at both games in sequences. From that moment on, it became obvious that we humans will always lose at such games when playing against computers”, the EY partner declared.

He believes that the trend of Artificial Intelligence gradually replacing us in successive areas of work and life is unstoppable. Quantum computers are another harbinger of massive change.

“I have been following their development for five years or so. In early exchanges with universities and startups worldwide, nobody could tell me what purposes such computers could possibly serve. Today, first business applications have hit the market, a gateway to brand new visions in such fields as business process modelling, material studies, logistics, and effective decision-making. We see quantum computers as implements allowing us to reach formerly unattainable goals, also in cybersecurity”, Piotr Ciepiela remarked.

Suggested Skills for Children

President of the Polish Chamber of Information Technology and Telecommunications Andrzej Dulka compares attempts at predicting successive technological watersheds to driving a car in the fog.

“So, you’re familiar with your route and destination, while driving with visibility limited to 50 or 200 metres. While capable of predicting events two or three years ahead, we draft decades-long forecasts for businesses and the economy. What do we actually know? That 6 G is right around the corner, 7 G in the laboratory pipeline. What about a thirty-year perspective? Nobody knows. Instead of focusing on technological development only, let’s consider actions we ought to take in order for our children and grandchildren to be happy thirty years from now”, Andrzej Dulka suggests.

It is now obvious to everyone that man will never again be a match for algorithms in addition or multiplication, not to mention more complex operations. This means that children will have to master the use of new tools, generative AI-based chats included, as well as the skill of critically observing algorithm outcomes, comprehending and telling the difference between AI- and human-generated content.

“Primarily, however, they have to be capable of discovering truths and untruths and telling the two apart. To our children and grandchildren, this will have to be as easy as using a calculator is to our generation, and this change must start today”, the head of the Polish Chamber of Information Technology and Telecommunications believes.

Ahead of Japan

Several years ago in pre-pandemic times, one of the hottest questions was, whether Poland – given its statistically low innovation and robotisation levels, and the rather symbolic investment in science in comparison with global leaders – stands any chance of becoming a technological revolution leader. Experts are in no doubt today: this is already happening.

“Cracow has been amazingly effective in attracting the most significant global companies, an absolutely unique ecosystem conducive to the creation and development of state-of-the-art technologies evolving around giant corporations”, says Jacek Przybylski, director of the Cisco Global Services Centre in Cracow. Non-existent in the early 2010s, the branch employs nearly 2,500 people today, approximately 1,700 of whom IT experts – and is of key importance to essential areas of global technology development.

According to an ABSL report published in early September 2023, the Global Business Services (GBS) sector – with a network of over 1,800 centres and a headcount of 435,000 in Poland today – generates 4.5 percent of Poland’s GDP. Around 100,000 people (40% of the enterprise segment headcount, micro-companies excepted) are employed in the industry in Cracow alone. Experts are pointing to the fact that most centres handle complex and intricate services not easily replaceable with algorithms. The largest centres focus on the creation and development of super-modern technologies.

“Over thirty thousand programmers – chiefly Cracow university graduates – work in our city today. They are worldclass specialists: Poles rank third on global lists. Having served as a run-of-the-mill network hub handling a part of global operations in the early days, Poland is now a location of Great Change in key areas, such as cybersecurity. As it turned out, the competencies we have to offer are unavailable anywhere else worldwide”, Jacek Przybylski emphasises.

“During a recent visit to Japan, I was under the impression that Poland has surpassed the country in many fields, albeit Japan continues to be seen by multiple Polish communities as a role model in technological advantage-based economic development. We are extremely advanced in paper-free environments, switching to apps, digitising the financial sector. People in the US and Japan are surprised to hear that – until they come to Poland. We used to go visit them to see something new. These days, they are coming to check out our new solutions. We should start bragging about it”, Piotr Ciepiela says.

“Global potentates have found that Poland is full of smart people, ready to work efficiently and hard. This has already been appreciated by global firms seeking win-win solutions. We have not always been aware of it. Who knows that 5G software is developed in Poland, for example? One should also bear in mind that we are not operating in a vacuum – we are part of an enormous international network of engineering collaboration. This is why we have been so successful as a powerful world player in the new technologies sector”, was Andrzej Dulka’s comment.

Modern Like a Polish Bank

Successful technological revolution examples include the Polish financial sector: one of the most backward in Europe twenty years ago, one of the most modern ones globally today. Importantly, Polish financial institutions have created, marketed and been developing breakthrough products – BLIK a case in point – all by themselves. Fintechs are a part of the Great Change ecosystem, which includes locally operated research and development centres owned by unicorns – technological companies worth in excess of one billion dollars.

“The Polish banking sector has undergone tremendous transformation, now a role model for many countries. According to the most recent Deloitte Digital Banking Maturity report based on one of the largest surveys assessing digital maturity in the banking sector, our bank was listed as one of the 15 most digitally advanced institutions worldwide. Notably, 200 organisations from 40 countries around the globe have been analysed”, says deputy CEO of Bank Pekao S.A. Błażej Szczecki.

He believes that mobile technology development is much more important to the financial sector than the IoT, blockchain or metaverse, as such development brings change to businesses and the economy alike (the number of customers who have never set foot in an actual bank is on the rise), not to mention the shopping for goods and services format. According to the deputy CEO of Bank Pekao S.A., generative Artificial Intelligence is the other key technology.

“It has come into our lives already, which is why we should all know how to take advantage of its increasingly numerous functionalities, safely and consciously”, Błażej Szczecki believes.

Tomasz Jaworski, an independent international expert in the digital transformation of the public sector, points to the great potential of developing new technologies for state and local government bodies and institutions.

“If we digitised all technologically outmoded fields to the degree achieved by banks, it would improve Polish GDP growth considerably. Actual success stories are best at appealing to the imagination. Consider e-PIT returns: had the documents we filed in Poland online in 2023 remained in paper form, their pile would have been 11 km tall. Bear in mind that the list of digitisation-related benefits is much longer”, says Tomasz Jaworski.

Why do certain public sector areas have a higher propensity for absorbing digital technology than others? The expert references sixty-year-old forecasts by Yoneji Masuda, one of the information society prophets. He predicted that digitisation would come in waves, evolving from science and universities to large businesses, banks included, to then span the public sector; yet it is noteworthy that the financial world tends to undergo digitisation considerably faster (the exercise making tax inspection and collection much easier), such sectors as railways and postal services more resistant. Their resistance can be expressed in monetary terms, but not only that. Technology could notify us of the exact location of any grain hopper wagon in Poland, for example, and trace its progress. Today, we are sometimes unaware where entire train sets are.

Stop Demonising Technology

Piotr Ciepiela highlights that brought up in a world of mobile technology prevalence and great Artificial Intelligence progress, Generation A(lpha) representatives have a tendency to approach the digital world more naturally than older generations.

“Rather than demonise technologies, we should learn to use them, safely and efficiently. This goes primarily for AI. Some people have already begun grumbling that kids will hand in ChatGPT-generated homework assignments. To that I say, I clearly recall drawings and compositions that had certainly not been created or written by my classmates, but rather by their parents, aunts or uncles, or more talented friends. Nothing new there. Let us begin by admitting that just like a hammer, technology is neither good nor bad. Everything depends on how we use it”, the EY partner advises.

Jacek Przybylski fully agrees that the purpose and form of putting technology to use are much more important than how it works. He further adds that we should not forget infrastructure that would let everyone without exception use technologies consciously and safely. Furthermore, such infrastructure should aim at zero-emission neutrality, the assumption also (or: primarily) concerning the energy sector: no major investor will invest in a country with no access to cheap green energy.

“It can thus be claimed that the technological revolution is taking place on multiple levels and in many areas, energy and climate to health and cybersecurity. We should let none out of sight. We have created an excellent ecosystem for developing new technologies in Poland, a unique opportunity for us to become hugely important to the global technological revolution. Yet that ecosystem has to be capable of constant change and adjustment to new trends and requirements. We cannot afford to overlook anything – we would miss our moment in history as a result”, Jacek Przybylski appeals.

The President of the Polish Chamber of Information Technology and Telecommunications points to the technological revolution’s human dimension: “Nothing we are discussing herein will make any sense unless we focus on ethics, values, the meaning of humanity, to a greater extent than on technology itself. Let us never forget that technological tools have a purpose: to help us and our kids lead happy lives”, Andrzej Dulka concludes.

Zbigniew Bartuś